While it’s hard to truly know what’s going on behind-the-scenes at Bethesda Game Studios, there are some good reasons to think that Fallout 5 is unlikely to have entered even the earliest stages of development.
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Bethesda’s Timeline
While Bethesda has been withholding many of the key details about its upcoming projects, it has been confirmed which projects are currently being worked on at Bethesda Game Studios. As it stands the studio is currently prioritizing the development of Starfield, a space-set RPG which will be Bethesda’s first new IP in over 25 years.
The other project is The Elder Scrolls 6. Originally announced back at E3 2018, very little information has been revealed about the next game in the iconic fantasy series, not even the province of Tamriel it will take place in. What has been confirmed, however, is that The Elder Scrolls 6 will not be releasing until after Starfield.
Rumors began circulating recently that Starfield is on-track for a 2021 release, despite so many games being delayed in the past year. This was based on the game’s name being copyrighted for the year 2021, which has corresponded to the year Bethesda games have been released in the past.
This is far from confirmation of Starfield’s release window, however. It is likely that more of Starfield will be shown at E3 2021 with a release date announced for some point in the next two years. So far, fans have only had a few leaked images of Starfield to go on since the game’s initial reveal three years ago, and the upcoming RPG is certainly due some details. If the release date is announced at E3 this will in-turn help fans get a better idea of the release window of The Elder Scrolls 6.
Most speculation places the release of The Elder Scrolls 6 some time around 2026. This makes it likely that The Elder Scrolls 6 is still in the early stages of development. In fact, Starfield itself is likely to be a fruitful testing ground for some of the features speculated to be included in both games. These include survival mechanics, base-building, and the larger, procedurally generated open worlds mentioned by Todd Howard at Brighton Digital 2020.
It is possible that the end of Starfield’s development could see Fallout 5 become a secondary project at Bethesda Game Studios. Even if that is the case, however, it likely puts Fallout 5’s release closer to 2030 than the present day. There is another possibility, however.
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Third-Party Fallout
There have been several leaks from reliable industry insiders that have claimed that a sequel to Fallout: New Vegas is in development. What exactly is meant by this is unclear. It could mean that a game will be released that continues the story of Fallout: New Vegas in some way. It could also refer to the circumstances surrounding New Vegas’ development, referring to a Fallout game developed by a third-party developer. After Obsidian Entertainment and Bethesda’s falling out following the release of the first New Vegas, the return of Obsidian seems unlikely. Nonetheless, it is possible that a new Fallout game could be on the way, just not from Bethesda Game Studios.
This would allow a new Fallout game to be developed at the same time BGS is working on Starfield and The Elder Scrolls 6. Like the original New Vegas, a Fallout game developed by a third party would likely use the same engine and assets as the last installment of the single-player Fallout games, in this case Fallout 4. As such it remains possible that a Fallout game could be released at some point in the next couple of years, but if that game is developed by a studio other than Bethesda it is unlikely to mark a generational leap forward. Fallout: New Vegas is beloved among fans of the franchise, however, so a return to the spin-off series may still be welcomed with open arms.
Bethesda’s Sci-Fi RPGs
There are other reasons Bethesda may not want to release a Fallout game over the next few years, even if that game could be developed by another studio. The Fallout franchise has taken a few big hits in recent years. Todd Howard recently described Fallout 76 as having “let a lot of people down.” It is possible that Bethesda may want to put Fallout on the back-burner after Fallout 4 and Fallout 76 were released in relatively rapid succession.
Not only that, but Obsidian’s The Outer Worlds has created more competition in the satirical sci-fi RPG market. Paired with the disappointing reception of Fallout 76 this could make a new Fallout game a far riskier bet than it would have been five years ago. While it’s clear that Starfield operates in a very different part of the sci-fi genre than Fallout’s Americana-infused apocalypse, Bethesda may also want to avoid having two sci-fi RPGs release too close to one another.
Bethesda has relied on The Elder Scrolls and Fallout for over two decades. Starfield marks a change of tack which leaves the studio’s future far less predictable that it has been in the past. Starfield could see Bethesda leave the Fallout franchise on the backburner, especially if the new IP ends up being a hit. With the developer going through a period of transition, the future of Fallout is likely deeply tied to the reception of both Starfield and The Elder Scrolls 6. While that makes it unlikely that Fallout 5 is in development, it also means the door is not closed on the franchise just yet.
Fallout 5 has not been announced.
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